Post by donniehoward on Oct 7, 2010 12:17:18 GMT -5
UFC 121, October 23rd, is an absolute beast of a card. I have been looking forward to this card for months as 2 of my favorite fighters:Tito Ortiz and Brock Lesnar are on the same card! WOW!
Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago
Diego is coming off 2 straight losses and one has to wonder if the beating he took from BJ Penn has possibly ended his career? He followed that up with a subpar UD loss to John Hathaway at UFC 114. I can't see the UFC ever cutting Diego, since he did win the first season of "The Ultimate Fighter," but one has to wonder if this is potentially a "cut" fight for Diego?
Paulo Thiago is the fighter who famously knocked out Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 in the first round. He followed that up with wins over Jakob Volkmann and an impressive sub of Mike Swick before losing to Martin Kampmann at UFC 115.
This fight is the classic wrestler for striker, if Diego can push the pace and get this fight to ground, he can take a decision victory. I think Diego's standing skills are good enough to avoid the big shot and his JJ skills are good enough to avoid a Thiago sub. I see this fight definitely going to the judges and I have Diego getting back on track with a Unanimous Decision victory "YES,YES"
Brendan Schaub vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Gonzaga since his all time great highlight reel Head kick KO of Mirko Cro Cop, has turned into somewhat of a gate keeper in the HW division. He still has powerful hands,good ground game and is dangerous on any given night. Brendan Schaub is taking a HUGE step up in competition here. Going from Chris Tuscherer to Gabe Gonzaga is a hefty jump. This is a great litmus test for The Hybrid,to gauge how far he has come since losing to Roy Nelson in The Ultimate Fighter finale.
Personally, I think its too much too soon. I think Gonzaga has heavier hands, more experience, better ground game. I think Schaub will be going back to the drawing board after this one. I just don't think he is ready for someone the caliber of Gonzaga.
I'm going Gonzaga 2nd round TKO
Jake Shields vs Martin Kampann
Excellent introductory fight for Jake Shields in the UFC. Kampmann is an excellent striker and a very tough guy. He will be game and bring the fight to Shields. Shields,however, is WAY too good of a wrestler and Jiu Jitsu artist to lose this fight. Octagon nerves maybe could get to Shields, but I doubt it. I see Shields either winning by Decision or getting a Submission late 1st/mid 2nd round.
Take these next two picks with a grain of salt. These are my two heroes and favorites, so some bias may leak in.
Tito Ortiz vs Matt Hamill
Very interesting teacher vs student angle with this fight, and this fight has the potential to be Fight of the Night and a great one.
I can sit on here and write a novel and probably have as to why Tito isn't finished. People honestly don't understand how serious spinal fusion and neck fusion surgery is.
It isn't like tearing an ACL or breaking your nose. When you have herniated disks pressing on levels of your spinal cord, it reeks all sorts of havoc. People would always comment how Tito was no longer explosive or aggressive or strong. Well, when you have the back problems he had, your legs basically feel numb and weak. Its almost impossible to properly train your legs, and with the neck herniation it causes severe headaches and it makes your arms numb which makes lifting weights and sparring a chore.
Tito is healthy now, but once again, after surgery, had had a layoff. Will we see ring rust again? If Tito's cardio is like it was against Forrest, he will not win this fight. I am giving Tito a pass on the Hamill fight due to coming off this surgery but I still think he will have enough to defeat Hamill. Hamill is a very solid wrestler, and those are the fighters that give Tito trouble, but Matt keeps his hands low and like Rich Franklin, I think Tito will be able to inflict enough damage standing to win the fight.
People like to say how Tito hasn't won a fight since 2006 but what they fail to mention is, he has lost to NOTHING but top 5 former LHW champs. It isn't like he is getting knocked unconcious or losing to B level fighters. All his fights also have been very competitive. First 2 rounds against Forrest, he looked quick and explosive again.
Tito takes this UD
Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
Brock's cloak of invincibility went away after the first round beating he took from Shane Carwin, i admit that but the problem here is, Cain isn't Shane Carwin. Cain is super fast,excellent cardio, great wrestler, but he has nowhere the strength or power of Shane Carwin. He will outclass Brock on the feet, but I don't believe he has anywhere near the power in his hands to knock Brock out. This fight comes down to if Cain can stop the takedown and can Cain get off his back.
Everyone hails the gastank of Cain,but have you ever seen Brock get tired? Brock is just a super freak athlete, and I don't think Cain can win this fight. Brock has 5 rounds to get this to the ground and once he does, I don't see Cain winning. I still have that Cheik Kongo fight in my head I guess, and if that is the Cain that shows up, he will get blown out of the octagon.
Cain has a puncher's chance but I ask myself this question: If the bombs Carwin hit Lesnar with didn't finsh him, can Cain do any better?
One thing does worry me about this fight, Brock's standup looked bad last night on Primetime still. When he was sparring, i saw him kinda cover and turn his head... If he does this against Cain and gets caught with an uppercut and hits his back, Cain WONT stop punching and will win on Ref stoppage.
My money,however, is on Brock. Cain is a smaller HW and will give up probably 40-50lbs the night of the fight. Brock 3rd rd TKO is my prediction.
Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago
Diego is coming off 2 straight losses and one has to wonder if the beating he took from BJ Penn has possibly ended his career? He followed that up with a subpar UD loss to John Hathaway at UFC 114. I can't see the UFC ever cutting Diego, since he did win the first season of "The Ultimate Fighter," but one has to wonder if this is potentially a "cut" fight for Diego?
Paulo Thiago is the fighter who famously knocked out Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 in the first round. He followed that up with wins over Jakob Volkmann and an impressive sub of Mike Swick before losing to Martin Kampmann at UFC 115.
This fight is the classic wrestler for striker, if Diego can push the pace and get this fight to ground, he can take a decision victory. I think Diego's standing skills are good enough to avoid the big shot and his JJ skills are good enough to avoid a Thiago sub. I see this fight definitely going to the judges and I have Diego getting back on track with a Unanimous Decision victory "YES,YES"
Brendan Schaub vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Gonzaga since his all time great highlight reel Head kick KO of Mirko Cro Cop, has turned into somewhat of a gate keeper in the HW division. He still has powerful hands,good ground game and is dangerous on any given night. Brendan Schaub is taking a HUGE step up in competition here. Going from Chris Tuscherer to Gabe Gonzaga is a hefty jump. This is a great litmus test for The Hybrid,to gauge how far he has come since losing to Roy Nelson in The Ultimate Fighter finale.
Personally, I think its too much too soon. I think Gonzaga has heavier hands, more experience, better ground game. I think Schaub will be going back to the drawing board after this one. I just don't think he is ready for someone the caliber of Gonzaga.
I'm going Gonzaga 2nd round TKO
Jake Shields vs Martin Kampann
Excellent introductory fight for Jake Shields in the UFC. Kampmann is an excellent striker and a very tough guy. He will be game and bring the fight to Shields. Shields,however, is WAY too good of a wrestler and Jiu Jitsu artist to lose this fight. Octagon nerves maybe could get to Shields, but I doubt it. I see Shields either winning by Decision or getting a Submission late 1st/mid 2nd round.
Take these next two picks with a grain of salt. These are my two heroes and favorites, so some bias may leak in.
Tito Ortiz vs Matt Hamill
Very interesting teacher vs student angle with this fight, and this fight has the potential to be Fight of the Night and a great one.
I can sit on here and write a novel and probably have as to why Tito isn't finished. People honestly don't understand how serious spinal fusion and neck fusion surgery is.
It isn't like tearing an ACL or breaking your nose. When you have herniated disks pressing on levels of your spinal cord, it reeks all sorts of havoc. People would always comment how Tito was no longer explosive or aggressive or strong. Well, when you have the back problems he had, your legs basically feel numb and weak. Its almost impossible to properly train your legs, and with the neck herniation it causes severe headaches and it makes your arms numb which makes lifting weights and sparring a chore.
Tito is healthy now, but once again, after surgery, had had a layoff. Will we see ring rust again? If Tito's cardio is like it was against Forrest, he will not win this fight. I am giving Tito a pass on the Hamill fight due to coming off this surgery but I still think he will have enough to defeat Hamill. Hamill is a very solid wrestler, and those are the fighters that give Tito trouble, but Matt keeps his hands low and like Rich Franklin, I think Tito will be able to inflict enough damage standing to win the fight.
People like to say how Tito hasn't won a fight since 2006 but what they fail to mention is, he has lost to NOTHING but top 5 former LHW champs. It isn't like he is getting knocked unconcious or losing to B level fighters. All his fights also have been very competitive. First 2 rounds against Forrest, he looked quick and explosive again.
Tito takes this UD
Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
Brock's cloak of invincibility went away after the first round beating he took from Shane Carwin, i admit that but the problem here is, Cain isn't Shane Carwin. Cain is super fast,excellent cardio, great wrestler, but he has nowhere the strength or power of Shane Carwin. He will outclass Brock on the feet, but I don't believe he has anywhere near the power in his hands to knock Brock out. This fight comes down to if Cain can stop the takedown and can Cain get off his back.
Everyone hails the gastank of Cain,but have you ever seen Brock get tired? Brock is just a super freak athlete, and I don't think Cain can win this fight. Brock has 5 rounds to get this to the ground and once he does, I don't see Cain winning. I still have that Cheik Kongo fight in my head I guess, and if that is the Cain that shows up, he will get blown out of the octagon.
Cain has a puncher's chance but I ask myself this question: If the bombs Carwin hit Lesnar with didn't finsh him, can Cain do any better?
One thing does worry me about this fight, Brock's standup looked bad last night on Primetime still. When he was sparring, i saw him kinda cover and turn his head... If he does this against Cain and gets caught with an uppercut and hits his back, Cain WONT stop punching and will win on Ref stoppage.
My money,however, is on Brock. Cain is a smaller HW and will give up probably 40-50lbs the night of the fight. Brock 3rd rd TKO is my prediction.